What if we only needed five?
The Balance of Power — A Strategy for Alberta Independence
What if the path forward for Alberta independence isn’t winning a provincial election, but winning just five seats?
The referendum revealed something interesting. Although Option 2 lost province-wide, support approached or exceeded 50% in five constituencies:
- Rimbey–Rocky Mountain House–Sundre50.9%
- Central Peace–Notley50.4%
- Drumheller–Stettler48.4%
- Grande Prairie–Wapiti46.9%
- Taber–Warner46.3%
These are unofficial referendum figures, not projections of how people would vote for an independence party. But consider this. Under our first-past-the-post electoral system, a candidate doesn’t need 50% of the vote to win. They only need more votes than any other candidate.
In a three-way race, 40% could be enough. Sometimes even 35%.
Now imagine a future Alberta Legislature with 89 seats:
UCP
NDP
Independence Party
Neither major party has a majority. Those five independence MLAs could potentially hold the balance of power. This isn’t unprecedented. In 2017, just three BC Green MLAs helped determine which party would govern British Columbia through a confidence-and-supply agreement.
What could five independence MLAs accomplish? Think about the objections we heard throughout the referendum campaign:
- “What about policing?”
- Negotiate concrete steps toward establishing an Alberta provincial police service.
- “What about pensions?”
- Push for an independently verified Alberta Pension Plan proposal, including costs, benefits, and transition arrangements.
- “What about Indigenous treaties?”
- Establish meaningful government-to-government discussions with Indigenous nations to address treaty rights and constitutional obligations.
- “Is independence even legal?”
- Commission serious constitutional and legal analysis, identifying the actual requirements, obstacles, and possible negotiating pathways.
- “What about federal transfers and finances?”
- Demand transparent financial modelling showing what Alberta would gain, lose, and need to replace.
- “What about trade and being landlocked?”
- Pursue interprovincial trade agreements, transportation access, and legal clarity around existing trade corridors.
- “What about federal jurisdiction?”
- Identify which responsibilities Alberta could assume under existing law and which would require negotiations or constitutional change.
We wouldn’t resolve everything. But imagine entering the next referendum campaign with several of these questions already investigated, negotiated, or partially resolved.
That’s the advantage of incremental progress. And there’s another important consideration: vote splitting.
A new independence party running candidates across Alberta could divide the conservative vote and help elect an NDP government. But what if it contested only five carefully selected constituencies? That wouldn’t eliminate vote splitting, particularly within those five ridings. However, it would substantially limit the number of constituencies exposed to that risk. We would need to study the new electoral boundaries, local voting patterns, and candidate viability before deciding where to run.
Still, imagine five dedicated independence MLAs able to negotiate policy commitments in exchange for supporting a minority government.
Not demanding immediate separation.
Not pretending we can overturn the referendum result.
But to advance policies, address concerns, and build a strong foundation for whatever Albertans decide in the future.
We received ~25% support, and nearly 50% in some constituencies. I still support Alberta independence. I accept the referendum result. And I believe we should seriously consider what comes next.
Perhaps the next step isn’t trying to win the whole province.
Perhaps it’s finding five ridings where we can win a seat and earn a voice.